With back-to-back victories over NET top 15 teams, the Indiana Hoosiers are back on bubble watch with one of the strangest resumes of all time.
On one hand, Indiana currently has 14 losses on the season, which is one less than the most number of losses for teams that received an at large bid. Unless they win the Big Ten tournament, the expectation is that they will have 15 going into Selection Sunday.
However, 9 of the 14 losses currently come from Quadrant-1 teams. The rest are from Quadrant-2, which means that Indiana does not have any bad losses this season.
| QUAD-1 | QUAD-2 | QUAD-3 | QUAD-4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1-30 | 31-75 | 76-160 | 161-353 |
| Neutral | 1-50 | 51-100 | 101-200 | 201-353 |
| Away | 1-75 | 76-135 | 136-240 | 241-353 |
The selection quadrant system by NET ranking and game site.
The 20 game Big Ten schedule is to blame for IU’s record; however, it may also the reason the Hoosiers sneak in to the dance. Had the Big Ten stayed with the 18 game schedule, Indiana could very well have two less losses, two more wins, but at the cost of their strength of schedule.
Will the committee recognize Indiana’s tough slate of opponents?
Regardless, here is how to cheer for teams across the country to see the Indiana trident on Selection Sunday.
Let’s get this out of the way: Indiana can still play itself out of the conversation.
Indiana needs to win out the rest of the regular season at a minimum. The Illinois game will be a Quadrant-2 win or loss. A loss to Rutgers at home, however, would be Indiana’s first loss in Quadrant-3.
The first category of teams are those that can move Indiana’s losses or wins between Quadrants. To further improve Indiana’s resume, cheer for these teams to win.
Arkansas currently sits at number 74 in the NET rankings. They are currently categorized as a Q1 loss, but if they dip below 75 they will be considered as a Q2 loss.
Iowa lost big against Rutgers without their suspended head coach Fran McCaffery. That coupled with a big loss against Ohio State has moved Iowa just outside of the top 30 NET and moved Indiana’s home loss to them in the second quadrant.
Ohio State, after that big win mentioned above, currently sits outside of the top 40 NET next to Iowa. If they win out, they could also move into Q1 consideration for Indiana’s home loss against them. Update 3/7: With Ohio State’s loss to Northwestern, we will need Ohio State to lose to open another spot in the bubble. They effectively move to the bubble bursting category.
Butler, like Ohio State, is also a debatable team. They are with Indiana right on the bubble, so they potentially could be a bubble burster (see below); however, realistically speaking their chances are not very high to make the tournament, even if they sneak into the top 50 of the NET. Plus if it came down to Indiana versus Butler, the committee may consider the head-to-head. For those reasons, we say go ahead and cheer for your fellow in-state team and get the neutral court game moved up as another Q1 victory.
The Hoosiers can further improve their resume if the teams that they have played in the season also do better. That statement applies for both IU’s wins and losses. While these teams may not move between quadrants, any boost for Indiana’s team sheet will be much appreciated by Archie Miller and Director of Basketball Operations Bill Comar. Cheer for victories by these teams.
Marquette
Louisville
Michigan State
Big Ten Games
These teams are currently are either solidly in the field or they are near the bubble. If another team in their respective conference tournaments wins the championship, the following teams may get a bid anyways. Indiana fans need these teams to win their respective conference tournaments.
For example, let’s take a look at the Atlantic 10. Currently the VCU Rams are leading the A10 and in all likelihood will get an NCAA tournament bid no matter what. On the other hand, fellow A10 team La Salle currently is sitting out of the picture. If La Salle somehow manages to win the tournament, then NCAA will send an invite to both VCU and La Salle, instead of VCU – thus reducing the overall number of at-large bids available.
Gonzaga
Buffalo
Wofford
Washington
VCU
Belmont
Finally, the last and longest group of teams fall into the category of bubble teams that Indiana needs to lose so that the Hoosiers could slot higher. These teams are either the last handful in or the first handful out. Hoosier fans need this list to lose as much as possible between now and selection Sunday.
Projected In:
NC State
Furman
UCF
Alabama
Arizona State
Minnesota
Clemson
Utah State
Seton Hall
Temple
Projected Out:
TCU
Murray State
Saint Mary’s
UNC Greensboro
Nebraska
Toledo
Georgetown
Dayton
Creighton
Please note that these take in consideration a variety of variables. These reflect the latest NET standings as of March 3rd, 2019. You can find the latest here on Warren Nolan’s website. Teams bolded below would help Indiana’s chances the most.
Sunday, March 3rd
Tuesday, March 5th
Wednesday, March 6th
Thursday, March 7th
Friday , March 8th
Saturday, March 9th
Sunday, March 10th
Big Ten Tournament, March 13-17th
After one insane roller coaster ride of a Big Ten schedule, the Hoosiers are somehow back in the conversation as a bubble team. Considering the fan chatter about the team and Archie Miller, this is no small feat so far.
Indiana has their work cut out for them and a clear uphill battle. As mentioned earlier, they would be considered a historical team given past selection committee results.
Step one was to get back in the conversation. Check.
Indiana has two more regular season opportunities and a Big Ten tournament in Chicago to fall on the better side of the bubble.