On one hand, Indiana currently has 14 losses on the season, which is one less than the most number of losses for teams that received an at large bid. Unless they win the Big Ten tournament, the expectation is that they will have 15 going into Selection Sunday.
However, 9 of the 14 losses currently come from Quadrant-1 teams. The rest are from Quadrant-2, which means that Indiana does not have any bad losses this season.
QUAD-1
QUAD-2
QUAD-3
QUAD-4
Home
1-30
31-75
76-160
161-353
Neutral
1-50
51-100
101-200
201-353
Away
1-75
76-135
136-240
241-353
The selection quadrant system by NET ranking and game site.
The 20 game Big Ten schedule is to blame for IU’s record; however, it may also the reason the Hoosiers sneak in to the dance. Had the Big Ten stayed with the 18 game schedule, Indiana could very well have two less losses, two more wins, but at the cost of their strength of schedule.
Will the committee recognize Indiana’s tough slate of opponents?
No Big Ten team is ranked worse than 75th in the Ken Pomeroy ratings. Top to bottom, the best league in the country. And it’s not close.
Regardless, here is how to cheer for teams across the country to see the Indiana trident on Selection Sunday.
The No Brainer: Indiana Needs to Win Everything
Let’s get this out of the way: Indiana can still play itself out of the conversation.
Indiana needs to win out the rest of the regular season at a minimum. The Illinois game will be a Quadrant-2 win or loss. A loss to Rutgers at home, however, would be Indiana’s first loss in Quadrant-3.
@ Illinois
vs Rutgers
Big Ten Tournament (March 13-17th)
Quadrant Movers
The first category of teams are those that can move Indiana’s losses or wins between Quadrants. To further improve Indiana’s resume, cheer for these teams to win.
Arkansas currently sits at number 74 in the NET rankings. They are currently categorized as a Q1 loss, but if they dip below 75 they will be considered as a Q2 loss.
@ Vanderbilt
vs Alabama
SEC Tournament (Nashville, TN – March 13-17th)
Iowa lost big against Rutgers without their suspended head coach Fran McCaffery. That coupled with a big loss against Ohio State has moved Iowa just outside of the top 30 NET and moved Indiana’s home loss to them in the second quadrant.
@ Wisconsin
@ Nebraska
Big Ten Tournament (Chicago, IL – March 13-17th)
Ohio State, after that big win mentioned above, currently sits outside of the top 40 NET next to Iowa. If they win out, they could also move into Q1 consideration for Indiana’s home loss against them. Update 3/7: With Ohio State’s loss to Northwestern, we will need Ohio State to lose to open another spot in the bubble. They effectively move to the bubble bursting category.
@ Northwestern
vs Wisconsin
Big Ten Tournament (Chicago, IL – March 13-17th)
Butler, like Ohio State, is also a debatable team. They are with Indiana right on the bubble, so they potentially could be a bubble burster (see below); however, realistically speaking their chances are not very high to make the tournament, even if they sneak into the top 50 of the NET. Plus if it came down to Indiana versus Butler, the committee may consider the head-to-head. For those reasons, we say go ahead and cheer for your fellow in-state team and get the neutral court game moved up as another Q1 victory.
vs Xavier
@ Providence
Big East Tournament (New York, NY – March 13-16th)
Resume Builders
The Hoosiers can further improve their resume if the teams that they have played in the season also do better. That statement applies for both IU’s wins and losses. While these teams may not move between quadrants, any boost for Indiana’s team sheet will be much appreciated by Archie Miller and Director of Basketball Operations Bill Comar. Cheer for victories by these teams.
Marquette
@ Xavier
vs Georgetown
Big East Tournament (New York, NY – March 13-16th)
Louisville
@ Virginia
ACC Tournament (Charlotte, NC – March 12-16th)
Michigan State
vs Nebraska
vs Michigan
Big Ten Tournament (Chicago, IL – March 13-17th)
Big Ten Games
The rest of the Big Ten is messy due to the sheer number of teams that Indiana has played against, so we have a game by game recommendation below.
Maximizing At-Large Bids
These teams are currently are either solidly in the field or they are near the bubble. If another team in their respective conference tournaments wins the championship, the following teams may get a bid anyways. Indiana fans need these teams to win their respective conference tournaments.
For example, let’s take a look at the Atlantic 10. Currently the VCU Rams are leading the A10 and in all likelihood will get an NCAA tournament bid no matter what. On the other hand, fellow A10 team La Salle currently is sitting out of the picture. If La Salle somehow manages to win the tournament, then NCAA will send an invite to both VCU and La Salle, instead of VCU – thus reducing the overall number of at-large bids available.
Gonzaga
West Coast Conference Tournament (Las Vegas, NV – March 7-12th)
Buffalo
Mid-American Conference Tournament (Campus/Cleveland, OH – March 11-16th)
Wofford
Southern Conference Tournament (Asheville, NC – March 8-11th)
Washington
Pac-12 Tournament (Las Vegas, NV – March 13-16th)
VCU
Atlantic 10 Tournament (Brooklyn, NY – March 14th-17th)
Belmont
Ohio Valley Tournament (Evansville, IN – March 6-9th)
Burst the Bubble
Finally, the last and longest group of teams fall into the category of bubble teams that Indiana needs to lose so that the Hoosiers could slot higher. These teams are either the last handful in or the first handful out. Hoosier fans need this list to lose as much as possible between now and selection Sunday.
Projected In:
NC State
vs Georgia Tech
@ Boston College
ACC Tournament (Charlotte, NC – March 12-16th)
Furman
Southern Conference Tournament (Asheville, NC – March 8-11th)
UCF
vs Cincinnati
@ Temple
American Athletic Conference Tournament (Memphis, TN – March 14-17th)
Alabama
vs Auburn
@ Arkansas
SEC Tournament (Nashville, TN – March 13-17th)
Arizona State
@ Oregon St.
@ Arizona
Pac-12 Tournament (Las Vegas, NV – March 13-16th)
Minnesota
vs Purdue
@ Maryland
Big Ten Tournament (Chicago, IL – March 13-17th)
Clemson
@ Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
ACC Tournament (Charlotte, NC – March 12-16th)
Utah State
@ Colorado St.
Mountain West Conference (Las Vegas, NV – March 13-16th)
Seton Hall
vs Marquette
vs Villanova
Big East Tournament (New York, NY – March 13-16th)
Temple
vs Tulane
@ UConn
vs UCF
American Athletic Conference Tournament (Memphis, TN – March 14-17th)
Projected Out:
TCU
vs Kansas St.
@ Texas
Big 12 Tournament (Kansas City, MO – March 13-16th)
Murray State
Ohio Valley Tournament (Evansville, IN – March 6-9th)
Saint Mary’s
West Coast Conference Tournament (Las Vegas, NV – March 7-12th)
UNC Greensboro
Southern Conference Tournament (Asheville, NC – March 8-11th)
Nebraska
@ Michigan State
vs Iowa
Big Ten Tournament (Chicago, IL – March 13-17th)
Toledo
vs Western Michigan
vs Eastern Michigan
Mid-American Conference Tournament (Campus/Cleveland, OH – March 11-16th)
Georgetown
@ DePaul
@ Marquette
Big East Tournament (New York, NY – March 13-16th)
Dayton
vs LaSalle
@ Duquesne
Atlantic 10 Tournament (Brooklyn, NY – March 14th-17th)
Creighton
vs Providence
vs DePaul
Big East Tournament (New York, NY – March 13-16th)
Game by Game: Big Ten Cheering Guide
Please note that these take in consideration a variety of variables. These reflect the latest NET standings as of March 3rd, 2019. You can find the latest here on Warren Nolan’s website. Teams bolded below would help Indiana’s chances the most.
Sunday, March 3rd
Michigan vs Maryland: Michigan preferred due to them being a double-play for Indiana.
Northwestern at Illinois: Illinois since these are both double-plays. Going with the assumption that Indiana will win at Illinois on Thursday.
Tuesday, March 5th
Nebraska at Michigan State: Michigan State due to the double victory and because Nebraska is a bubble team.
Purdue at Minnesota: Purdue since Minnesota is currently a bubble team.
Wednesday, March 6th
Penn State at Rutgers: Penn State would boost one of only two Indiana road victories.
Ohio State at Northwestern: Northwestern as the Buckeyes are now a bubble team.
Thursday, March 7th
Iowa at Wisconsin: Iowa only if they still need help to get to the top 30 NET. If they are already there, then a loss at Wisconsin will not likely hurt them too much. Indiana could then benefit by bolstering the win over Wisconsin.
Indiana at Illinois: Indiana
Friday , March 8th
Minnesota at Maryland: Maryland since Minnesota is a bubble team.
Saturday, March 9th
Purdue at Northwestern: Northwestern due to double play. It also helps the entire conference if the bottom of the Big Ten is as good as possible.
Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State due to double win.
Sunday, March 10th
Illinois at Penn State: Toss up due to the double play with Illinois, but Penn Statewinning could help Indiana’s Big Ten tournament seeding.
Rutgers at Indiana: Indiana
Iowa at Nebraska: Iowa due to Nebraska being on the bubble.
Wisconsin at Ohio State: Wisconsin to build Indiana’s resume and since Ohio State is on the bubble.
Big Ten Tournament, March 13-17th
Need to win: Indiana, Michigan State
Need to lose: Minnesota, Nebraska
The Whole Context
After one insane roller coaster ride of a Big Ten schedule, the Hoosiers are somehow back in the conversation as a bubble team. Considering the fan chatter about the team and Archie Miller, this is no small feat so far.
Indiana has their work cut out for them and a clear uphill battle. As mentioned earlier, they would be considered a historical team given past selection committee results.
Step one was to get back in the conversation. Check.
Indiana has two more regular season opportunities and a Big Ten tournament in Chicago to fall on the better side of the bubble.
